Strapped - Reno (Renting a home vs. buying a home.)

NLU Content Discussion
965

to support @anon26814599

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code

super interesting article

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966

I love sports betting, but it’s definitely gambling.

The Colts got a lot of love for the over on season win totals, then Luck retired and the bettors are very likely out money before the season even starts.

Anything can happen in sports, which is why it’s both fun to watch and very hard to win money gambling on.

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967

I have a buddy who in his early 20s thought he devised a perfect system to betting on baseball. He quit his job and moved to Vegas to do it full-time. He started off on a heater after 2 weeks. After 3 weeks we was broke and moved back to Chicago to live on his friend’s couch.

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968

yeah, i have no issue with it at all.

But i think the minute a guy starts seeing it as more than random gambling, he’s got an issue. But that could just be my own view of things, as a guy thats terrible with gambling to the point of quitting cold turkey as a 25 year old.

969

Sounds like a story also common with poker players.

970

i think that we have made the same point here. IF you collect enough information (or, @munihack7, IF you are good enough at poker), both sports-betting and poker truly become skill based games.

as for where that line is? who knows. but there is a line, because there are wildly successful professionals in both industries, whose careers aren’t attributable to random chance.

if you’re below that line? sure, definitely could just be random gambling. agreed.

971

agree. i think the line is way more achievable for a regular guy in poker than in sports betting though. there are so many more variables in sports betting that the time you’d have to dedicate to it seems implausible to me.

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972

This is not true. I think what you meant to say is that your odds of winning can increase as you develop your respective skills. It’s still gambling but your odds of winning can improve.

Golf is a skill based game, I could never, ever, be able to beat Koepka, ever. I could conceivably beat Negreneau at poker in a given game.

973

i meant “in the long run”, i’m sure that given the right run you could come up well against kid poker in a single session but it’s insanely unlikely in a week of sessions. probably just as likely as you beating koepka. maybe he develops the hosels

974

I can never beat Koepka, ever, because golf is a skill game and his skills are just way better than mine.

Poker is part skill for sure, but it’s also part gambling no matter how good you are. The ratio of skill to luck is up for debate though but calling it a pure skill game is not accurate.

975

“A chip, a chair, and a chance.”

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976

yea, i think at some point it switches from luck mattering more to skill mattering more. obviously you still have to run well, but there are EV charts and all other kinds of metrics (look at Doug Polk’s youtube) so you can see “how well you should have done in your hands” vs. “how well you did given what your opponent had”.

poker is obviously not pure skill i’m not arguing that. neither is sports-betting because some things are due to chance, injuries etc, that don’t nullify bets.

977

@djpie Do you see what happens when there is no Strapped episode?

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978

I don’t play poker - don’t even understand it really because I get bored with it. One time I won a Texas hold ‘em night with friends that play all the time and it made them mad because of all the skill they developed from watching poker on espn or something because I wasn’t playing “properly”. It was all luck. Just folded right away on every hand for a while and then went all in a couple of times with what I had left.

Also how is poker interesting to watch on TV? They show what everyone has so there’s no suspense for the viewer!!!

979

tight, but aggressive.

this usually works fairly well.

calling all the time, and never folding pre-flop are what gets you killed.

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980

people call this a “nitty” strategy. for a good player, its pretty easy to recognize and exploit – for example, everyone sees those “old guys” at the table who only play when they have KK or AA, so you just raise them when they’re on the blinds, and fold to their raises. (if they were smarter about their game, they would exploit this image, but they’re generally not.) but for a lot of other players, this can be a very punishing strategy, and in your case, it sounds like it worked out.

you definitely get blown up by running into a strong hand (JJ+) with this, but, that happens sometimes.

i lost $100 in a 10c/20c game with a friend because i flopped a K-high flush and he had the nut flush. I had KTs and he had AJs. like what the fuck. but it happens.

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981

in general, i’m speaking to a guy that doesnt play much. Guys that dont play much, always think their hand is better than it is.

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982

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983

image

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984

Me, on a Tuesday without Strapped

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