It’s an Incomplete for me. Just really hard to evaluate or say what this year was or what he’ll be moving forward after so much time away. He was a top 10 guy in 2020, I don’t know if he’ll be that again.
Is this what Twitter is? Fucking kill me now
Let’s rate the Bandon courses while we’re at it
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Some things that @KVV didn’t emphasize re Herbert/Chargers offensive possession stat this season that doesn’t show up in numbers, we lost our vertical stretch threat Guyton early in the season, Allen and Williams missed a lot of games combined (Herbert’s worst games were when Williams was missing*), we were missing our rock star LT, and oh yeah Herbert had fractured rib cartilage almost the entire season and apparently a torn shoulder that he needed surgery on.
*With no Guyton, missing Williams meant the defense didn’t have to respect the field beyond 20 yards and compressed everything. That’s why the Chargers only threw under 10 yards, we didn’t have anyone capable of getting behind the secondary either through speed (Guyton) or height (Williams).
As a Chargers fan who has watched every Herbert snap (and not just on tape) he has multiple flaws he needs to work on. His touch/soft/short passes are awful and that’s partly why he doesn’t do them. His cannon for an arm is actually a bad thing inside 10 yards. This also partly means he has a hard time throwing crossing routes to receivers so that they catch it in stride and that’s one of the reasons we are bad at YAC (Also a route scheme issue). Rather he throws a bullet pass at receivers chest that they sometimes can’t even catch if their name isn’t Keenan Allen. He doesn’t throw it away at an elite level yet and gets sacked for it. He doesn’t run with the ball enough to escape trouble (this season I assume it’s the rib injury). He grew a lot under Steichen his rookie year, who is now killing it with Hurts, but Lombardi definitely stalled Herbert’s growth.
But Herbert’s arm talent is #1 in my book and if you need someone to make a hard throw into a tight window anywhere beyond 10 yards he’s the best in my opinion. He typically makes the correct throw to the correct read during the play without having to run around waiting for someone to get open on a broken play (Looking at you Mahomes) but we need a better scheme than (1) Throw a crossing route to Keenan (2) Throw it deep to Williams and (3) Throw a flat to Ekeler. We need better play from our next receivers (Palmer, Guyton) or TE (Everett) next season because as @Tron said Allen and Williams aren’t people you want to depend on going forward due to their age/health issues.
And yes the Chargers defense should be a lot better but it’s mainly a scheme issue more than personnel. Staley figured it out towards the end of the season, more man coverage and less complicated zone. The secondary was being asked to do too much and were giving up a lot of yardage because of it, JC Jackson looking bad for the Chargers is a big part of this. As a single-game comparison, the first half against Jax in the playoffs we played the man coverage (Why ASJr excelled in the first half) but then Staley got conservative and the second half was predominately zone. Stuff like this is why Staley is a question mark for Chargers fans, there’s genius there and the dumbest decisions at the same time.
Is Moore going to fix everything? No. But this past year is clearly a regression for Herbert / Chargers offense that needs to be reversed. The defense is moving in the right direction in terms of scheme and we’re not going to lose too much on the defensive side of the ball hopefully in terms of personnel.
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Shanny hasn’t been a top 3 QB since he left Atlanta!
So a fun little thought exercise. There’s a clear separation between the extremely high ceiling QBs, the good, not great QBs and then just a massive drop off to the rest of all the shit. I think the demarcation point is: would you rather have your current QB for 2 years, or 2 years of the shriveled remains that Gisele left behind. And if the answer is that you’d rather have 2 years of Brady, your QB probably stinks.
The guys that carry you to a SB
- Mahomes
- Burrow - massive balls may cause future problems with pocket mobility, but I’m all in on his ceiling.
- Allen - Buffalo’s playcalling is fucking awful, and if they ever get a true RB1, they’re going to be nasty. I think Allen’s ceiling is higher than Mahomes but coaching is the obvious separator. Allen had a lot of bad red zone brain farts this year which keeps him out of the top spot. 5 INTs to 23 TDs in the red zone is a bad look. Mahomes was #2 in RZ picks, but he also had 34 red zone TDs.
- T.Law - dude took massive strides this year, and I think next year he’s just get even better. Makes the clutch plays that are a separator from great to elite
The guys that don’t prevent you from getting to a SB
- Jalen - could be a product of the system, but Shanny’s proved that even a mediocre QB can be good in the right system. Tough to argue with the results and he’s year 2 LamLam. I wouldn’t want him long term because his play style is a liability long term, but for one year, he’s a great QB to build around
- Herbert - has the talent to be higher, but the Chargers can’t help but dribble shit down their legs when it really matters, and he hasn’t stepped up in the big moments. Strong whiffs of Xander.
- LamLam - talent is there, but his body is going to break down eventually and I’m not sure how healthy he is in the future. Still better than Stinky Dak, but probably the bottom of the really good/great QBs
The Trash Heap (you might get there, but when you wake up you realize that 8/10 was really a 4/10
I’d have said Tua before Miami decided to scramble his brains. Fields is fun to watch and I’d love for Shanny to scheme crazy ass plays for him, but I’m not taking Fields over Brady in a one year vacuum. Goff/Rodgers/Wilson/Carr/Stafford are all above average QBs, but they’re just meh. The rest should just retire and let some fresh blood in.
I think my list of guys in this category may be longer than yours. But I agree it is a list unto itself. And that it’s not very long may be the biggest example of how QB play overall kinda stinks.
I’d also posit this could be called the really needs a good offensive line to succeed group. Not enough talk here about O line is a huge difference.
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DVOA adjusts for your opponents and even Cleveland’s schedule above is like playing an extra game against the Stillers if drilling down to avg adjustment from opposing defenses. Not the most daunting task (sorry Stilllers fans).
Cincinatti was 7th in pass DVOA this year (24.9%). Buffalo (36.5%) and KC (41.1%) were 2nd and 1st respectively.
By this standard, there would be 36 players in the HOF and would not include people such as Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Rodgers Hornsby, Joe DiMaggio, Sandy Koufax, Mickey Mantle, Bob Gibson, Joe Morgan and many others. This is a dumb idea.
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QB Top 10
- Mahomes
- Burrow
- Allen
- Trevor
- Hurts
- Herbert
- Lamar
Throw a dart at the board for #'s 8-32
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It’s only like that because of the group collusion among the writers not to give guys 100% of the vote for some stupid reason. Would love for somebody to make the case that Mickey Mantle wasn’t a Hall of Famer. Also, I’m not a big fan of the voters who know that a guy like Griffey is getting in so he doesn’t vote for him and instead gives a vote to somebody like Shawon Dunston because they’re friends.
Baseball Hall of Fame used to be an exclusive club for the very top players. Now that they’re letting compilers and ‘very good but not all time great’ guys like Rolen and Harold Baines, it’s more like Football and Basketball Halls where everyone gets in.
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When I was a kid I watched the Sports Reporters religiously on Sunday mornings. One of the regulars was Bill Conlin from Philly. I forget the current player at the time he said he didn’t vote for. But his reasoning was no one should get 100% because Willie Mays didn’t. Imagine not voting for Willie Mays. But also imagine not voting for a guy because another guy didn’t get 100%. Baseball writers are petty as fuck.
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Ahh to go back to the days of Sports Reporters in the morning and the George Michael Sports Machine at night
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This week’s episode title updated: NFL Butthurt Naish (brought to you by Big Bayless and Tron A. Smith)
For @Randy to see some throws from the season
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSheKRm3x20
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As we are a month out from the start of the season, will we get another F1 fantasy draft on the TD?
Trevor Lawrence getting the mega recency bias bump in these rankings. Better ≠ good
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Mahomes
Burrow
Allen
Hurts
Herb
Trevor
Lamar
Dak
Cousins
Stafford
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Mahomes
Allen
Burrow
Herbert
Lawrence
Pickett
Jackson
Prescott
Hurts
Goff
Tagovailoa
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