Worked with Benetti early on in his career. It’s hard to overstate how quick his mind works. Yes he’s really smart, but it’s damn near instantaneous with some of his comebacks and one liners.
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I think it was Trap Draw 298 (Chop Session)
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@Tron could use a Trap Draw segment on best weather apps as all of mine seem to be worse than they were in prior years. Which are best in certain regions and are any good globally? Free vs paid options? Etc
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The Weather Channel is truly the only accurate app as far as I can tell. I use it in Nashville.
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Weather Channel has been terrible for me in NYC in recent months! Trying to look for another option
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'Nader alley resident here. Personally I utilize Nat’l Weather Svc (free) for forecasts and models. For real-time, I turn to OK Mesonet (free but limited to OK) and Radar Scope (paid).
Paging @OliveLoaf for his input
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Damn! It really does feel like there’s no solution that ticks every box.
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Didn’t Tron mention a weather app specifically for GB&I on a pod recently? Heading there next week for work and talking on some golf afterwards and might give whatever app that is a whirl
i think it was called Windy but could have been mistaken
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The weather app market might be due for some Disruption™.
I got tired of keeping up with them. Now I just use the default Apple weather app.
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WeatherBug is most accurate here: Weather Channel is super pessimistic.
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UI upgrade to weather channel app has been amazing. Such a cleaner experience now too.
RIP Dark Sky
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He mentioned Windy and the UK Met Office. I have not experienced their app, but the UK Met is the gold standard.
I do not use a ton of weather apps. I use The College of DuPage NEXLAB Forecasts (all the models) if I’m digging in on my computer. If I need a quick forecast on my phone I will pull up a browser and go to the NWS.
I do have weather apps on my phone;
Tomorrow . io , but i hardly use it. Good interface, claims of ‘street level’ forecasts for your location. I really only have their app as they are a interesting player to watch in private sector meteorology; lofty goals.
Radar Scope is my favorite Radar app. Has literally all the radar data depictions, multiple levels.
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I’m a big fan of Weather Underground, and when I feel like getting cursed at, Carrot.
appears to be it, basis logo.
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Gold for Cheptegei and Bronze for Fisher. One of the most impressive distance finals I’ve ever seen. 26:43 to win is the Olympic record by a huge margin. Ethiopians were working together to keep the pace fast, and it backfired on them only getting one medal. Fisher probably needed the fast pace as he hasn’t historically did as well in sit and kick races, so it all played into his hands. Thought he had a shot of gold at like 75m to go. Cheptegei has won several world championships 10ks and has the WR, but the Olympic gold is basically the only thing in the event he had not achieved. Huge for him. He wasn’t running well earlier in the season, but showed that he can time his peak better than anyone else.
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will be interesting to see how the population distribution in the US exposed to wildfires and floods as well as parts of Canada exposed to wildfires looks 10 and 20 years from now… some eye-watering stats in here
BLOOMBERG: A $1 Trillion Time Bomb Is Ticking in the Housing Market
Millions of US homes are underinsured because their premiums don’t reflect the risk of climate-fueled catastrophes.
August 2, 2024 at 7:30 AM EDT
Summary
Cassandras seldom get opportunities to be right about two disasters. Even the original Cassandra scored no notable victories after predicting the fall of Troy. But when a seer who successfully called one catastrophe warns of another coming, you might want to listen.
Years ahead of the financial crisis, David Burt saw trouble brewing in subprime mortgages and started betting on a crisis, winning himself a cameo in The Big Short by Michael Lewis in addition to lots of money. Now Burt runs DeltaTerra Capital, a research firm he founded to warn investors about the next housing crisis. This one will be caused by climate change.
In a webinar with journalists last month, Burt argued that US homeowners’ wildfire and flood risks are underinsured by $28.7 billion a year. As a result, more than 17 million homes, representing nearly 19% of total US home value, are at risk of suffering what could total $1.2 trillion in value destruction.
“This is not a ‘global financial crisis’ kind of event,” Burt said, noting the total housing market is worth about $45 trillion. “But in the communities where the impacts are happening, it will feel like the Great Recession.”
Burt’s estimate may actually be on the conservative side. The climate-risk research firm First Street Foundation last year estimated that 39 million US homes — nearly half of all single-family homes in the country — are underinsured against natural disasters, including 6.8 million relying on state-backed insurers of last resort.
The issue is that in many parts of the US, insurance premiums don’t reflect the risk of climate-fueled catastrophes, which is growing as the planet warms. A record 28 weather disasters in the US last year did $1 billion or more in damage, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This year is on pace to at least match that record, with 15 such events so far — a tally that doesn’t yet include Hurricane Beryl, which might have caused $30 billion in damage.
Globally, the toll from natural disasters has topped $120 billion so far this year, the reinsurer Munich Re estimated this week. Only $62 billion of that was covered by insurance, a figure 70% higher than the long-term average. Most of this damage happened in the US, and much of it was borne by homeowners.
Insurers have been raising premiums in response to these catastrophes and to cover the rising costs of rebuilding and buying their own insurance through companies like Munich Re. Homeowners insurance premiums rose 11% on average in the US in 2023, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. They’ve risen by more than a third in just the past five years. In states on the front lines of climate change, including California, Florida and Texas, increases have been even higher.
But premiums still aren’t high enough, mainly because almost nobody wants them to be. Homeowners aren’t fans of paying exorbitant insurance rates, and they tend to punish politicians who let them rise too much. Higher premiums also hurt property values, threatening tax revenue. The result is market manipulation like California’s Proposition 103, which sharply limits how much insurers can raise premiums. And even if insurers could increase rates willy-nilly, they might think twice about chasing off customers — especially when laws and regulations are designed to discourage homeowners from suing insurers for uncovered damage.
“Every part of our financial and legal system at this point is devoted, singularly devoted, to keeping the status quo in place,” Harvard Law School professor Susan Crawford said in the webinar. “It will be difficult for us to adapt.”
First Street used a hypothetical California home to illustrate just how wildly divorced from reality insurance costs can get in some places. Say our imaginary Californians started out in 2010 paying an annual $2,000 home-insurance premium. If that increased by 7% a year — the absolute most the state will allow, and highly unlikely in any case — that premium would have hit $4,820 in 2023. Yikes! And yet that would still be $2,900 short of what the price should be to truly reflect how much Hypothetical Insurance Inc. has at risk, First Street estimated, considering climate change, inflation, reinsurance and other costs.
No wonder insurance companies have been fleeing California, Florida and other risky areas in bunches, leaving real-life homeowners stuck relying on state insurers of last resort. These policies are expensive and often inadequate. The providers are also at constant risk of insolvency. California’s FAIR plan faced $311 billion in potential losses at last count, and Florida’s Citizens Property Insurance Corp. faced a possible $525 billion hit. The federal National Flood Insurance Program, the biggest flood insurer in the US, is a consistent money-loser. Who would backstop these plans if they failed? Take a look in the mirror.
The logical solution is to price climate risk accurately, as the NFIP has started to try to do by finally ending its reliance on outdated flood maps. We’d no longer be subsidizing the building and rebuilding of homes in areas most vulnerable to chaotic weather. But the result of doing that all at once would be sudden, awkward price discovery in the housing market, with Burt’s $1.2 trillion of losses becoming reality.
We’ll have to find a happy medium, discouraging settlement along the front lines of climate change while also avoiding economic disaster. But as homeowners who have ended up in the path of a California wildfire or Florida flood can attest, sometimes the disaster comes when you’re not ready.
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