The Gambling Thread is Handicapping the Ponies Until Further Notice

I know we’ve got a number of threads going on that talk about gambling on the golf course but with the NFL season sneaking up on us, like to open up a space for the degenerates to share their plays, bad beats, and general rants.

I’m certainly a sports bettor but also dabble in the casino table games and horse races (although I absolutely suck). On a train to NYC today and using my time wisely to get a pick 5 up before post time at Saratoga.

What do you all like to wager on? Any stories of big time wins or bad beats?

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LOVE betting on NFL football.

We now have legalized sports betting 90 minutes away just across the Iowa border.

Some NFL bets I’m pondering placing:

Vikings NFC North Champs

Eagles SB Champs

Panthers over 8 wins

Packers under 9 wins

Chiefs over 10.5 wins

Raiders over 4 wins

Came home from last 2 trips to vegas up around 2500, mostly all blackjack and craps. A little sports gambling in there but I do that throughout the year so I don’t do it as much when I’m actually in Vegas. May seem backwards haha

NFL is such a temptress to bet on. Those line are generally way to tight.

I’m big on college football. I like betting totals and typically unders based on weather. I’ll share my model in here as the year goes on.

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Yeah I’d love to understand how you decide what’s a green light and what to lay off, especially weather based. You’ve piqued my interest.

Wind is typically a huge factor and also cold temps. There is pace factors and things like that but wind is by far the biggest. Wind affects football totals more than anything else.

They call them wunders and I’ve posted a good bit about them the last two years on reddit. But I’ll probably primarily post about them about it on here. I’ve been out on reddit for awhile.

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Man this is very interesting! Are you seeing positive returns with this strategy?

Last year was a very successful year with it. My problem is I like betting more than just unders. But I was 62% on total bets last year on CFB and 25-9 on college wunders.

For reference. Historical trend for wind speeds and under totals is…

-59% in games with 15mph sustained winds
-61% in games with 18mph sustained winds
-65% in games with 22+mph sustained winds

So theres a huge historical trend just on the baseline of wind speeds and unders. From there we obviously do more digging based on defenses, offenses, pace and QB play. We like cold but it’s definitely not neccesary. We like snow but again definitely not neccesary.
The biggest thing that people don’t realize with totals in general is that the under is almost always the sharp side. The public will always blindly bet on overs. I have friends and people I talk to about betting a lot and they’ve never bet an under in their life and basically refuse. It’s not for the faint of heart and its definitely not the sexier side of a total. And that’s where I see an edge and so do a lot of sharps.
Its a fun method.

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As for what I’m tipping this week for the Tour Championship.

Coming off a JT win.

I’ve got Hideki to win at 35-1. Yeah kind of absurd odds for a guy starting 7 back but that’s what I got. I’d much rather it be 50-1 but I do think it’s possible he’s 2 or 3 back going into round 2 and then his odds will be a lot shorter.
Hideki top 5 at 5/1 and Rory top 5 at - 110
Also Hideki over DJ for 72 holes at +110

I’m big on Hideki this week. We’ll see but his ball striking was sublime last week. If the putter heats up a little bit watch out.

Damn this is definitely interesting. I’ve always dreamed of building a gambling model. If you don’t mind sharing what’s your return on this? My gambling knowledge is a little rusty but if most of the money is on the over does that mean you’re getting some thing like -110 on the under?

Yeah most of the bets are - 110. Sometimes you’ll get - 105 or - 115 but I bet with a bookie whose standard lines don’t stray to far from standard juice.

My ROI last year on wunders was 19% which is/was insane. CFB in general was 10%. But then I go piss most of it away betting on the NFL so it’s all relative. It’s not a model to get rich or anything like that. Just something I’ve had good success with.

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Have been high on Hideki all year - wouldn’t surprise me one bit. That said, price is a little short for me. Generally betting PGA Tour winners I look between 20/1 - 40/1 odds. And that’s starting on even ground.

November 21, 1998; $20 5-Team Parlay. Reckless, I know, but the 25:1 payout was alluring to an almost-starving, sweater-folding Assistant Golf Professional. The sting of one game’s events have clouded many of the details, but the story reads something like this:

The Picks
Mississippi St. - upset & cover vs. Arkansas
Ohio St. - covers against Michigan
Ga. Tech - has a big number to meet, but makes it against Wake Forest
UCLA - keeps control of things vs USC. A cheap USC score makes it intersting, but UCLA covers
(I’m 4 for 4 on the early games, and parlay is looking good.)

Notre Dame is a 4pt favorite at home against LSU, and the game is closer than it really should be. I’ve blocked out most of it from memory, but somehow Notre Dame is up by 5 with posession, and only a few seconds left on the clock. Rather than punt the ball away from their own 30(ish), dipshit Bob Davie tells Jarious Jackson to run around to kill the clock. Somehow, Jackson interprets that to mean “dick around in the end zone, take a safety, and get your knee blown out while doing so”.

A $520 swing that Saturday, due to coaching incompetence and player ignorance. I flipped over my shitty sofa inside my shitty condo & went to the bar.

F The Fighting Irish. They made me give up betting on NCAA football.

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These are the types of grudges I live for. Get screwed over one time by a guy with no knowledge of your big bet and hang on to it till the day you die. Gambling at its finest

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Betting on golf is pure madness.

It’s a 30 player field with half the field basically eliminated before they even teed. The smaller events aren’t so bad. Pick two or three winners a year and you’re doing just fine.

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Hard agree here. Yes, betting on golf is tough and you go negative most weeks, but the wins are much bigger than other sports. As @BigBackstopping said, get a few winners over the course of the season and you’re pretty in good shape.

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Golf matchups are fun. Threw in the towel on winners. Last one I hit was when Hunter Mahan won the match play.

Had Cantlay and Rahm/Palmer this year but that was it. Matchups are fun for sure, especially when its the PGA Tour live group and you can watch the full round

It’s been a while since I’ve told that story. Thought that airing this out might be cathartic for me, but think it backfired. Pretty worked up over here.

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