Peloton lost out on 4k+ from me with the tread+ recall. I am not in any way shape or form worried about sucking anyone under and my 10 year old treadmill is nearing replacement time but I don’t want the tread, I want the damn tread+ because it’s a fucking tank and slats are awesome. And now they say no tread+ in 2022.
they really are. the tread+ is fantastic*
*aside from the whole death trap thing
I’m curious if the tread+ ever does get rereleased with all of the issues the company is having right now. They may have missed their window. I hope not, since I would buy one, but you never know.
When you go to order the century shirt make sure you get at least a size up, probably two. That thing runs smaaallll.
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Part of my goals this year was to not make excuses and ride regularly. Still new but Sam is turning into an early favorite. New PR today.
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gawt dang I’m tempted to buy some of that action. the market is saying the company is worth the same today as it was pre covid? what’s their subscriber base now vs then? I’d guess up between 25%-50%?
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I’ve never been so good with trading a stock as PTON. Bought it at $60, sold at $120. Now it’s at $25. Crazy.
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if the new customer adds didn’t cover the customer drops, then I might raise an eyebrow. and only if it was a trend for more than a quarter. Everybody that was even thinking about it bought one over the last two years, growth will of course slow.
they don’t own the factories or employ the workers making them right?
if this just amounts to an inventory, cutting retail stores, and firing some of the excessive staff hirings during the growth explosion, that’s an easy fix.
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Yeah, I think that’s probably right. It sounds like management is pretty … dumb? I mean it seems on the face of it that they had a surge in demand because of the pandemic and they planned as if that was the new growth track forever. And told the street as such. Then they had the major issue with the Tread+. I think once they work through the backlog of inventory, and get a third party assessment of their spend, they should mellow out. Enough, at least, that I won’t have to worry about the Peloton becoming worthless anytime soon.
It’s pretty clear they couldn’t manage the growth over the past couple of years (I’m one of those pandemic buyers). But anecdotally, everyone Peloton owner/user I know loves it and uses it on a regular basis. Not sure what home fitness market share looks like but I’d guess they are the leader by a pretty wide margin.
Like you said, assuming they figure out retail/costs/inventory, I’d be long on PTON. Just hope that doesn’t mean increasing subscription $ too much!
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Sad news to report. Worked super late last night. Lost track of time and all of a sudden it was after midnight. 50-some-odd day streak gone like that.
Anyway, here’s to day 1 of the new streak.
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They announced last year that they were building a factory of their own in Ohio. Production was meant to start at that factory in 2023 and they broke ground in August 2021.
They also bought a manufacturer of exercise equipment called Precor during 2021 for $420m. That got them 625,000 ft of manufacturing space in the US. Deal closed in early April 2021.
Not sure what comes of those now. They made those moves when they couldn’t keep up with demand and didn’t want to depend of offshore manufacturing. Now they have too much inventory.
According to the trading update yesterday, for the qtr ended December 31 they’ve got 2.77m subs (they guided 2.8m to 2.85m so Christmas wasn’t as good as they hoped) and monthly churn is 0.79%. Subs are up from 2.49m in the previous qtr. and churn was down slightly from 0.82%. They are burning cash though (sales and marketing, G&A and R&D all growing massively).
Overall, it is still a growing subs business with highly satisfied and engaged users. Market cap is now what it was pre pandemic or lower but subs are 3x what they were then (2.77m vs. 0.866m).
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I totally forgot about the acquisition of Precor, which I should have known, a friend works for them.
If they bought a factory too that’s a bit of a problem. Committed capital expense and labor. But on the other hand, other retailers are having a helluva time with getting products in peoples hands and Peloton has too much inventory? I’d probably rather have product on hand.
I work for CH Robinson, the biggest logistics company in the world. And I know Peloton has another competitor coming up because they want us to price out the same home delivery and setup service that Peloton offers. A coworker was assigned the account and mentioned he had no idea how Peloton does it because his initial review mentioned something like $2k+ for that white glove service.
I’d bet that stops with the way shipping costs are, and I bet there’s a ton of “synergy” opportunities with precor to lay people off.
I bet precor is also suffering. It’s not like the big gyms have had a good run of things recently, and are probably hesitant to lease new equipment. It’s an interesting hedge against Peloton’s business model though.
still sounds like a buy to me though.
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The info in the trading update talked about moving to a more “variable cost structure” in future. You’d of thought they had that before they bought Precor and then started building their own factory in Ohio? Having said that, have to agree that those moves made sense when they made them last year to counter supply issues.
I feel like projecting how many bikes they could reasonably sell would’ve been pretty easy. Like you’re never selling 100 million bikes.
Some formula of (humans with a household income of x)([people with gym memberships + people who own bikes they cost $1k + people who follow fitness whatever on IG].5) or something like that
And their projections should get even tighter as more are sold and they get all our data.
It’s just common sense that a plateau is coming.
Subscriptions on top of that with the recurring revenue would be the golden growth goose.
New to the Peloton gang. Wife bought a bike and it arrived around the holidays. Being not a cyclist at all I started with a beginner ride thinking I would be able to handle it. Unfortunately I choose Olivia as the instructor. Almost threw up, was light headed for a while afterwards.
Took a little break after that and just did a couple leisure rides on my own. Read through a bit of the thread here and decided to get back on the horse so to speak. Yesterday survived my first ‘class’ with Dennis. Looking forward to building up some stamina on this thing and working my way up to some of the classes y’all are taking.
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